Monday, August 3, 2020

Plateau

We've all become very familiar with the charts - the line rises, reaches a peak, and then falls.  In some cases, it falls to near zero and curves out to the horizontal.  In some cases, it doesn't fall, but zig-zags all over the place.  In one notable case, it falls - and then rises again, higher than before, and keeps on going.  

Some of the charts are "plateauing" - not falling, but continuing out to the right on a horizontal path, neither rising nor falling.

This is what's happening to speculation regarding the post-COVID new normal.  The new world.  The vast majority of what I'm reading is of the "wouldn't it be great" subgroup called "Here's how we've adapted to the quarantine environment. Wouldn't it be cool if we continued doing this kind of thing when it was over?"  From what I've seen, we're just going on and on with this kind of thing, at least in the popular press.  Distancing, leery of large groups, more use of sanitizer, etc.  

The AARP is guilty of this, among others.  "Sanitizers are here to stay;" "Economic Disruption;" "Fear of People in Stadiums, Trains" "Staying Home," etc.  These are things that are part of our lives because they have to be.  We need a little more insight and evidence to start thinking that we won't move back to normal in these areas.

The article (as well as an MIT Technology Review article, of which I may have something to say later) does start a conversation about decentralized living, which we discussed earlier.  

I'm going to start looking for more speculation about decentralization, and then add my own.  What fun we can have!

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