More Uncertainty

CNN tells us why we may never - or not for a really long time - be able to stand on solid ground and cry "Aqui!"  

No surprises, really, but it's kind of a stark shock to read "It's possible to reach herd immunity, and the lose it.  Repeatedly."

The usual suspects are anti-vaxxers, about whom the less said the better, and seasonal fluctuations.  We could get it all under control by early fall, and then lose in by the New Year.  Not only do we tend to gather inside a lot more when it's cold (and when it's the holidays), but there is some evidence emerging that COVID does better in cooler temperatures, and also in lower humidity, which is a feature of all heated homes and buildings.

Of course, once we begin traveling again, we will be moving variants all over the world, and introducing them to immune systems which do not have the right antibodies to address that particular variant.  This is already happening, and the complexity of the problem is mind-boggling.

Finally, we won't really be able to tell for sure when we reach herd immunity, because there are still disagreements over what percentage need to be immune (vaccinations + infected and recovered) before the virus burns itself out.  And, worldwide, it's difficult to believe that we'll ever be able to compute that number accurately enough, anyway.  

But we'll be able to see pretty clearly when we lose herd immunity - cases will spike significantly.  

So - we may not know that the new world has arrived for a long, long time.  Coastal marshes, barrier islands, inlet mazes, reefs and shallows.  In and out.  Columbus didn't know how good he had it.

Not Yet

So we're still looking for land.  Or, probably more precisely, we're looking for solid land where we can wade ashore and plant the flag, and pose for the obligatory picture. 

That's not always guaranteed.  The Jamestown colony was famously founded on extensive marshes, and the Pilgrims, who did land first on the firm sand bordering Provincetown Bay, could just as easily have wandered into the Nauset Marsh or Pleasant Bay or any of the swampy inlets around what is now Chatham.   Imagine if they had drifted too far south, instead of too far north, and come up against the barrier islands of North Carolina, or South Carolina's extensive coastal marshes.  History might have been different.

That's what it feels like, right now.  We've got land in sight, but we're not sure if we can actually land there - if we can find a place to stand on and say, "Here we are!  Aqui!  En el continente! The journey is over!"   

Abbey and I have had our first Moderna shot, and are scheduled for the second (with or without a day of miserable side-effects) a week from now.  But, as it turns out, that will not be our ticket to the new world.  Nothing will change.  As time goes on, we'll learn how others have fared after being fully vaccinated, and perhaps we'll adjust a little, let go a little - maybe, maybe not. 

We're running up and down the coast, looking for safe harbor.  Some sure sign that we've made it at last.  

Not yet.

We Can Choose

This is a summary of the Biden administration's foreign policy policies, which will do much to shape the new world.  There are lots of convenient links to primary documents.

I found this piece of the analysis interesting:

After the pandemic is over, the world will be different. We can choose some of the ways in which it will be different. 

We sure can.  Many of the early New World posts were about just that. Will we?

I Think The Cartoons Are Even Getting Funnier

 

Tierra?

Drew Magary cries "Tierra!  Tierra!"

Independence Day

It seems reasonable to look to the declaration of herd immunity as the end of our journey - the arrival in the new world.  For most of what most of us do in a "normal" life, herd immunity in the US is what we're looking forward to, although the pandemic isn't over until we achieve global herd immunity.

President Biden noted in his speech yesterday that he is setting a goal for American life beyond COVID:  

“If we do all this, if we do our part, if we do this together, by July the 4th, there’s a good chance you, your families, and friends will be able to get together in your backyard or in your neighborhood and have a cookout and a barbeque and celebrate Independence Day. That doesn’t mean large events with lots of people together, but it does mean small groups will be able to get together.

After this long hard year, that will make this independence day something truly special, where we not only mark our independence as a nation, but we begin to mark our independence from this virus.”

July 4th.  We can see the end in the distance, dimly.  There's a lot of haze because the distance is still great.  And there could still be sea monsters - the variants are unknowns; chaotic evil that we must be ready for.  

But if all goes well, burgers on the deck with vaccinated friends.  Such a simple goal, but truly special.  I can wait.

Another Benefit of WFH

                                     Good morning, everyone.  I brought donuts.

                                                                                                 The New Yorker, March 9, 2021

Hope for a New World-ish Experience

Remember  IATA?  Stands for the International Air Transport Association, and we've looked in on them before.

The IATA has developed, and is testing, a digital COVID Travel Pass A refresher:

The pass is an app that verifies a passenger has had the Covid-19 tests or vaccines required to enter a country.  It also verifies they were administered by an approved authority.

The pass seems to be the most comprehensive entry in the "I can prove I've been vaccinated" initiative so far. Actually, it addresses the "I can prove I've been vaccinated or have recently tested negative" initiative - or, more importantly, the "I can prove I've been vaccinated, or have recently tested negative and can prove it with something better than a certificate this guy sold me ten minutes ago as I was walking through the airport," which is important, because those guys have been selling those certificates in airports.

The Digital COVID Travel Pass also makes it unnecessary for those who have been vaccinated to follow the quarantine rules of those countries they're flying from or to.  

This will create a new world-ish effect on travel - both for vaccinated or tested travelers who now don't have to hole up in a hotel for two weeks, and on the airline industry, whose market will quickly expand to include anyone who's been fully vaccinated.  Win-win.  However, when a Travel Pass holder arrives at their destination city, they will emerge into the old world, where everyone is suspect, where masks must be worn, and where their IATA Travel Pass will probably mean nothing, because, of course, everyone on the ground is still arguing about how to standardize something this simple and essential.