Take Me to Your Leader(s)

Hidden in all the "the social and cultural behaviors brought on by the pandemic will stay with us afterwards" nonsense is an interesting idea.  It is based on a sense that the world will not continue to organize itself in the same way it has in recent years:  around nations that, as it turned out, exposed real structural weaknesses when presented with a complex, overwhelming crisis.

The US and China have been circling each other, itching for a fight, for a while (even before the virus changed everything), and, if anything, events during the last six months escalated the tensions.  Even in the before, however, it didn't seem like other countries were watching with the intent of aligning themselves with one country or the other.  The Cold War was over long ago, and we're not going back to that bilateral team play anytime soon.

It's hard to imagine the US regaining it's global stature anytime soon, even if Joe Biden is elected and does everything right.  We have shown the world just what kind of mess we can create, and how quickly things like alliances and long-term security agreements can change.  Everyone knows we can create four years of chaos and destruction, and that we can do it again, as early as four years from now.  It's hard to see a road back to world leadership.

China is a more complex picture.  It seems like alliances in that sphere have been chiefly economic, and that China's economy has just started to approach a substantial cliff, what with competition, the problem of a coal-fired economy (which is growing even when renewables are, as well), internal pressures, and - who knows? - perhaps even some global boycotts in support of the Uyghurs or Hong Kong.  A guy can dream.

Anyway, add China's substantial position in a global economy that has just fallen off a cliff, and the chances of it roaring back on top, attracting allies and trade or security partners is not something a lot of us would bet the farm on.

All of this is to ask the question:  Who will provide the needed leadership as the world emerges from the shadow of pandemic and economic devastation?  There is a way out - especially since our economic problems are the predictable results of our turning the economy off on purpose, and there will be a vaccine.  

The US, Brazil, Russia, India and other countries (including Sweden!  Imagine that!) have not responded well to the pandemic, and in most cases, we still don't know the extent of the damage.  The problems have been bad political choices that were made in the presence of enough information to make good choices, and that's not going to win you allies or partners.  So who will lead us out of all this?

It would be interesting to see Germany, New Zealand, Singapore, Canada, and some other folks who made some very hard - but correct - political decisions (NY Governor Andrew Cuomo?), get together and talk about how those decisions came about and how they might use that process to move forward, rebuild, and take the opportunity to make a much better world than we might have without the crisis.