The last WFH post was a little snarky, for which I do not apologize, but it's a real question: will a significant portion of the workforce work from home in the new world? And if so, what will be the consequences, intended and unintended?
We all know that Twitter offered a permanent WFH option to all its employees, as did Square at about the same time; Google just announced that employees would have the choice of working remotely through July of 2021, and Facebook predicts that half of their employees will be remote in five years. Many more companies have operated remotely, and it is certain that more will join them as the pandemic - at least in the US - rages on, with no sign of abating.
In April, according to this study, a little more than one in three American workers had changed from office work to remote work because of the pandemic. Add to that the approximately 15% who already worked from home before the pandemic, and the result is: in April, about half the American workforce - a little over 80 million people - was virtual.
Is this a good thing? There are endless data and lots of opinions, and the opinions are all over the place. Really not more than speculation at this point. Even articles called "Work From Home is Here to Stay" don't even make the effort to prove that this is the case - they all go on and on, breezily, about the pros and cons, using almost entirely anecdotal evidence, and the occasional narrowly-focused study.
But most of the anecdotal evidence - and the results of actual research - suggests that in many, perhaps most - but not all - cases, productivity increased. Apparently, creative work is best done in the office; less creative work - call centers, for instance - are more productive at home. But with more virtual linking systems like Microsoft Meeting, the creative power of working together in a room is, apparently, more and more being replicated in virtual rooms supplied with everything a real room can offer.
When I went to my niece's graduation from UNH ("It's a great day to be a Wildcat!") just over a year ago, she told me she'd be going to work in Boston for a company called Zoom, which I had never heard of and assumed I never would hear of again. Last night I had a rehearsal for a virtual Oscar Wilde play on Zoom, and likewise a meeting of an advisory board I'm on this afternoon. We have a "Zoom corner," complete with dedicated laptop, in the dining room. Along with Google Meet and a gazillion other meeting/conferencing/productivity apps which have no doubt sprung up since February, it is hard to imagine this all going away by next summer, and everything being pre-COVID normal again.
If there is a vague picture emerging, which would be optimistic to say the least, we might put a few dollars on the proposition that a fair number of American workers who were working in offices in January will be working at home for good. How many? Anybody's guess, but after reading a whole lot of articles so you didn't have to, at this point I'd say the guess is around 20% of those at home now, with a huge standard deviation.
That's in the neighborhood of 16 million people. 16 million fewer commutes. 16 million fewer sandwiches at the corner deli. Some proportion of 16 million people not using public transport. Some portion of 16 million people who are less vulnerable to workplace harassment and abuse. 16 million people now depending on reliable digital technology to earn a living. 16 million people maybe cooking meals more than they used to. Some (probably large) proportion of 16 million people more comfortable in their working environment. 16 million people who are adjusting to being home, and all that means, for good or bad. 16 million people with an hour or two a day more than they had before, when they were commuting, that they can use for... what?
This will change the face of America, change the character of its people. Just a little bit, but probably much of it will be noticeable. I think it will be a good thing. People will be empowered to make choices, be flexible, gain a little control over the dials and levers that make work work. Fewer gasoline engines converting gasoline into poison. And, if we can believe those who claim to be paying attention now, more productivity.
We can say, probably, that the new world will be different. It's a big, big picture, and details will emerge slowly, over a long time.
Lots to watch for. Let's get up in the crow's nest and look around for a while.
NOTE: All this assumes that school will not remain virtual; that in the new world, after the vaccine, it's OK to have a bunch of active kids together in a classroom with a couple adults. WFH will be very, very different if even a small proportion of students go virtual for good.
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