Remember "Unthinkable?" I've been looking back at that article, and digging deeper. The E&Y article is a summary of a longer, more detailed article (link to .pdf can be found on this page). This, toward the beginning, is what drew me in:
The idea that something very different - a "new normal" or "great reset" - lies on the other side of this devastating pandemic has entered the mainstream consciousness. Aspects of the pandemic that were initially murky have become somewhat clearer.
Here at The New World, we've been living in the murk for a long time.
E&Y conducted extensive interviews with over 100 "senior professionals - including academics, futurists, non-governmental organization representatives, investors, CEOs and other business leaders." The results were organized in four broad categories, each with subcategories:
The Global Order:
- There will be a shift in global leadership that we have talked about before, although there was a somewhat substantial level of worry about a move toward more authoritarianism, which is something to think about. But there was a lot of "too soon to tell-ism" in this one
- "Globalization will go regional." That sentence doesn't make a lot of sense to me; I'm sure they meant that instead of talking about, and aiming for, a single global market, we'll be developing more regional markets and economies that will be more resilient when disrupted. Apparently, we've learned our lesson. Supply chains will be regionalized. Manufacturing will move closer to markets. "Just-in-time" inventory management failed us when we needed it most (most dramatically in the disastrous effect on employees of meat packing plants), and alternatives - perhaps more expensive alternatives - will be developed, including widely-dispersed, more local food sources. Indoor farming, including vertical farming, a sector that has been growing slowly, will speed up to meet this local food demand. Interestingly, all this will lead to fewer, not more, truly global companies, meaning some global corporations will make the decision to withdraw from the global stage and concentrate on building more resilient regional operations.
- Many travel, immigration and workforce migration restrictions will remain long after COVID-19 is no longer a major threat - for economic reasons, because the economic effects will long outlive the virus. Resilient sectors and corporations will adjust - remember the rice-planting machines? WFH will also help with this - "companies will move to global remote workforces." We've talked about that, too.
Societies and Economies
- "Societies will address inequality and repair social safety nets" and "Action on social justice issues will increase." are two of the three subcategories here, and the the commentary is essentially what we talked about here. Still no evidence whatsoever that things will not snap back to status quo ante as soon as possible. "Our social contracts will be rewritten by COVID-19." Give me some kind of sign, OK?
-"Urban landscapes will be re-mapped." Something else we've talked about. More and more, I think this is a good thing, that it will happen in some way, and that it will help address some of the social and economic difficulties that the pandemic has exacerbated.
Firms and Markets
- This category's prediction is almost entirely about the digitization of work - another trend which has slowly been changing the way we work, but was turbo-charged when everything shut down and everyone stayed home. The "senior professionals" who participated in this conversation were more unanimous about this area than any others. From corporate leaders pivoting to a digital leadership style, to small local companies recruiting from the best talent available worldwide, "the delinking of talent from place" will change the way many or most of us work.
- "You may need a Chief Cultural Officer." Turns out that this refers to corporate culture, not human culture. Scattering employees all over the globe makes it hard to establish and maintain corporate culture, and, to the extent that this is important to your corporation, you'll want to do something about it.
Individuals and Households
- We'll be more likely to trust who we know. Trust in larger institutions and governments has been declining and that decline will certainly accelerate do to the (largely accurate) perception that the pandemic and the economic collapse has been mismanaged. "This trend will sustain or worsen polarization and reduce societal trust." Everyone's world has shrunk in a time of fear and uncertainty, and it will be difficult for many to rebound into a world where we're vulnerable and dependent on forces we are not familiar with. Even personal relationships - which have been digital and distant for so long - may suffer.
"Minimalist and self-sustaining lifestyles could endure beyond the pandemic." So many of us have done without for so long, and adapted as time went on. We might be happy to retain some of the strategies that have resulted in more security and a simpler life. Diminished and more mindful consumption; more do-it-yourself solutions; cooking meals at home from scratch. Discussion participants "overwhelmingly indicate that they expect these shifts to continue in some form after the pandemic is over."
Mental health implications. Fear, uncertainty, loss; financial disasters, parents working from home, disruption in schooling, and massive healthcare impacts of many kinds. Lots of new cases of PTSD, and those with existing conditions who have missed therapy or meds will need even more services. Will the new world include an enhanced emphasis on mental health services? The participants were "optimistic," but could offer nothing more than that. "Mental illness has long been the silent pandemic of modern life; COVID-19 might finally bring it out of the shadows."
Just a few thoughts before I dismiss you all (I know, I know - class has gone way over time, most of you have left, just a few more minutes...).
First, it may be encouraging to see that a lot of the major conclusions here have already been treated in one post or another of "The New World." Not that I'm at all prescient or perceptive; it's because many thinkers, coming at this from a wide variety of directions, seem to be coming to the same conclusions. This may be because humans tend to think alike - and make the same mistakes - or it could be that the murk is clearing.
Second, a lot of the thinking about the new world seems to acknowledge that another pandemic is coming. And another. In the back of our minds, we feel like we need to be ready, and we move in that direction.
Third - and I didn't highlight this much in this summary - long-term thinking seems to come into thoughts about the new normal. And it's more than the obvious "wow, what a disaster! Let's be ready for the next one!" I got a (very subjective) feeling that the intrinsic value of long-term planning was being valued a little more than usual. Wishful thinking? Maybe.
Thanks. Class dismissed.
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