Unthinkable

The article I said I'd get back to, was also a kind of a disappointment.  It was published in the "MIT Technological Review," but when I looked closer, it was "sponsored content," meaning a company - in this case, Ernst and Young (E&Y), an accounting and business consulting company which is apparently the seventh-largest privately owned organization in the United States - paid to have it appear.  So - grain of salt, and all that, but the truth is, we're all in this pandemic economy together, and we all want to get out the other side in one piece, so it's often interesting to hear what everyone's saying.

Not a lot, and those of you who have been reading here right along know that this is no surprise.   Lots of paragraphs that ended with "It is likely that these shifts will continue after the pandemic is over," with no attempt to suggest why they'll continue.  And a lot of "here's what I have wanted to happen in the world for a long time.  Wouldn't it be great if the pandemic, in some unexplained way, somehow brought this dream to fruition?"

This was an article aimed more at business leaders than at guys sitting home and writing a blog, so it included some suggestions for business strategy in the new world.  Although I'm guessing you could figure out what those recommendations were without me telling you, I did stop to think some about them.  Here they are:

"Scan - and wait.  The journey ahead is uncertain."  Well, you've got that right.  But the idea of businesses waiting and watching - and, most importantly - not knowing what exactly they're waiting or watching for, is a very new world-y approach.  That is certainly what most of us are doing right now.  For how long?  In business and commerce, what will that mean for innovation?  for investment?  for growth?  Will people start spending money again, and if so, on what?  when?  how much?  And if not - then what?

"Be flexible - and move quickly."  At some point, we'll know it's the right moment to move.   No feelers, no tentative forays into the fray.  Wait, consider a wider variety of options than you're used to, maybe even reconsider where you're standing and waiting - and then jump.  Lots of interesting results can be expected.  

"Plan for the unthinkable."  This is my favorite.  "'Unthinkable' scenarios are no longer dismissible; they should be a core part of your strategic planning process."  Planning is no longer safe and predictable.  The environment won't allow that - it won't reward it.  Things will be different, and in ways you weren't even thinking about thinking about six months ago.  

The economy of the new world will be different because of the very long-term effects of the economic damage that has been done, and is being done, and will be done, by whatever extreme measures are, or will be, required to defeat the virus (or required by our unwillingness to go far enough to defeat the virus).  It will, according to E&Y, who, I gather, charge large amounts of money for these insights, be an environment that rewards both patience ("Scan - and wait") and quick, decisive, irrevocable action (Be flexible - and move quickly").

No more chugging along in the wake of a soothingly familiar economy.  Actually, it sounds more like trying to survive in a jungle.  Unthinkable.