Don't Get It

There has been a lot of talk - and writing - about getting the virus, getting over it, and getting on with your life.  Especially if you're young and healthy.  The conventional wisdom has flirted with the idea of herd immunity - everyone gets it; everyone's then immune; problem solved.  This whole approach is a staggeringly bad idea, even thought it has been advocated by a wide variety of people, from just about every young adult on the beach to Sweden to the Lieutenant Governor of Texas.  

That's all off-topic here, where we talk about the new world.  But the reason why pursuing herd immunity, or encouraging healthy young people to get it and get on with their lives, is a staggeringly bad idea, is because, unlike the flu viruses we're used to, COVID-19 comes with permanent side effects which will have an impact on the lives of individuals, and on our healthcare system, for the rest of the century.  In addition, a new Spanish study is suggesting that this virus is... um... immune to herd immunity.

"The Guardian" has just published a chilling overview of what to expect if you contract this virus.  You might want to just go read it all.  And if you still feel like it's OK to get the virus and move on, you'll have the opportunity to join an online COVID-19 support group to help you manage your symptoms into the foreseeable future.

There is, at this point, little comprehensive research or record-keeping regarding the range of side effects, but there is enough anecdotal evidence to suggest strongly that you'd maybe want to think twice before relaxing quarantine.  Evidence that survivors are experiencing fatigue, shortness of breath, and further respiratory distress and illness.  In an early study of survivors in Wuhan, half the subjects "had lung function below the normal range."  Half.  Recently, a survivor needed a double lung transplant to replace lungs devastated by the disease.  Survivors of all ages are experiencing minor and major strokes - even some who were asymptomatic.  

And that's just the blood and lungs.  There are reports of damage to a variety of organs, including the brain, the liver and the kidneys.  Stories of cognitive impairment - memory issues, delirium, depression - are beginning to emerge.  There's a lot this virus can do to you, even if you survive.

And then - if you've spent some time in the ICU on a ventilator, as Boris Johnson and our local State Senator did - there's Post Intensive Care Syndrome (PICS).  Just being in the ICU and on a ventilator can leave you with another list of both temporary and permanent impairments:

• Physical limitations. After critical illness, some people are unable to return to work or to care for themselves without help.
•  Cognitive impairment. People who survive critical illness may notice new problems with memory and complex decision making.
•  Mental health issues. After an ICU stay, people are at risk for Post-Traumatic Stress symptoms, depression and anxiety as well as poor sleep.
•  Underlying medical conditions. Chronic medical problems may be diagnosed while in the hospital or may be exacerbated by critical illness

So, as Inigo Montoya said, "Let me 'splain.  No.  There is too much.  To sum up:"  To sum up, "survival" is kind of... relative.  And since we're not making much of an effort to prevent a lot of people from getting this disease, there will be a really unacceptable amount of suffering in the new world, as well as huge demand for healthcare services of all kinds.  

Sometime tonight or tomorrow, the three millionth American case of COVID-19 will be registered.  We all know that the real number is much higher.  Most will survive.  If, say, one percent of these survivors experience serious side effects of the kind that we are beginning to learn about, that's 30,000+ Americans with major permanent health impairments.  If it's two or three percent... well, you can do the math.*

Worldwide, nearly 11 million humans have contracted the virus.  And we're in, maybe, the third inning.  A long way to go.

So - don't get it.

 * - Remember the Wuhan study?  Half the survivors had impaired lung function?

UPDATE - 7/9/20 - And as we learn more, it gets worse:  "COVID-19 can lead to severe neurological complications, including inflammation, psychosis, and delerium."

Psychosis?  Don't get it.