Uh-oh

This post is kind of an update of the last two posts, which speculated how and when we would be able to emerge from our quarantine foxholes and begin to live life again.  How and when we get to the new world.

Uh oh.  It turns out that the assumption I used about vaccinated folks - they can't get the virus, and can't transmit it - is only half true.  "Vaccinated people might still be able to transmit the virus" is, apparently, a generally accepted understanding that I have completely missed.  In fact, this is true of people who are vaccinated for lots of common ailments, including "MMR, rotavirus, chicken pox, shingles* and influenza,"   If you get vaccinated, and then get exposed, or you're infected when vaccinated, you could still be infectious after vaccination.

The "might" in the first quotation above is interesting:  the makers of the coronavirus vaccines do not know if we'll be contagious after vaccination or not.  AstraZeneca thinks not, but their vaccine is only about 70% effective, which is not enough for me to take my mask off.

So - extrapolate as needed.  And the news gets worse - after we're vaccinated, if we're shedding the virus, we might be shedding it for weeks, perhaps months, afterwards.  And, please note that this estimate is contained in an article entitled "Should the Recently Vaccinated Be Quarantined to Prevent an Outbreak?"  Oh, boy.

The new world seems to be a moving target.

 * - I didn't even know that shingles was contagious.