2022

I hereby declare that we will not have reached the new world until most (all?) of us do not have to use masks, or practice social distancing, or wash our hands more than we did before.

Unlike many similar unilateral decrees, this one is useful.  It allows for conversations such as:

"New world yet?"

"Speak up, I can't hear you through the mask."

"Guess not."

A brief glance around will tell us if we've made it or not.  Very useful, to know when you've gotten to where you're going.

It also gives us a chance to speculate about just how long this journey is.  This is also useful, because we have been drifting around aimlessly for a while.  So how long is it?

Dr. Anthony Fauci spoke by Zoom to doctors and students at Thomas Jefferson University in Philadelphia last week.  

I feel very strongly that we're going to need to have some degree of public health measures to continue...It's not going to be the way it was with polio and measles, where you get a vaccine, case closed, it's done.  It's going to be public health measures that linger for months and months.

He went on to talk about herd immunity - done the right way, centered on an effective and safe vaccine - and noted that he didn't think that immunity would be achieved to a "profound degree" until late 2021 or early 2022.

And that's if the vaccine process does not encounter significant obstacles that cost significant amounts of time.  The other day, Pizer and BioNTech announced a significant milestone in their vaccine testing:  results indicated that it is "more than 90% effective at preventing symptomatic cases of COVID-19."

This is great, but we're not there yet.  The study in question included less than 100 people.  Once all the testing is done, the real challenges remain.  There are over seven billion people in the world, and everyone needs two doses of this vaccine for it to work.  The vaccine has to be stored and transported and stored again at eighty degrees below zero (-80) centigrade (which is a startling one hundred and twelve degrees below zero Fahrenheit, if I've done the math right).  Skeptics have to be won over.  Political issues abound; the trickiest, probably, being:  who gets it first?  And will that decision be made on a national level?  Local?  Global?  The elderly, racial minorities, and those with medical vulnerabilities are most at risk - and generally have the least political power.*

So - 2022, if all goes well.  Another breath.  Check the telltale, trim the sails a bit.  Send the watch below for a hot meal.  The new world is still a long way off.

 * - I think that this last issue will be fascinating to watch, and how we work it out will send a clear message to later generations regarding the character of this crew of ours that makes it to the new world.