Masks and Curbside Pickup - How Long?

I have been vaguely thinking about how vaccinations will change how we do things:  who does what, and why.

We've been waiting for a vaccination since March, and will be waiting a while longer.  But what are we waiting for?

To begin with, we are waiting for the day when we're no longer afraid of getting sick.*  But how will that work?  Normal flu vaccines operate at about 40%-60% efficiency, which means that even if you get a flu vaccine, whether you get sick is a (complicated) coin flip.  The COVID vaccines are testing at better than 90% efficiency, and if that holds up in the real world (not guaranteed), then we can feel a good deal safer.

But will we change our quarantine behavior?  People like me are working on the assumption that if we get COVID-19, we will die, or be so sick, for so long, that we'll wish we were dead.  With the vaccine, if I resume normal life, there's around a 10% chance I'll get the virus.  Russian roulette with a 10-chambered gun.  Worth it?  

Much will depend on how much infection is still out there, which in turn will depend on how many of us actually get the vaccination.  We can depend on the protection of herd immunity with a vaccine once 70% of us have either had the virus or have been vaccinated.  So one approach is to continue quarantine after getting vaccinated, until herd immunity has been declared.

And so on.  There will be much discussion on this and related topics, in the new world.  

 

* - At least those of us who have had the good sense to have spent 2020 being afraid of getting sick.