Japan's Baby Bust

Here at The New World, we've covered the baby bust and the baby boom.  Whether one happens, or another, seems to depend on how much control the population has on the complex process of reproduction.  Less control - for instance, less access to family planning - can cause an increase in births.  Populations - mostly in developed (non-poor) countries - with more control tend to opt out of parenthood - because they can - in times of economic uncertainty.

In Japan, most births take place within marriages, so fewer marriages will mean fewer babies.  In the three months leading up to June of this year, marriages in Japan fell 36.9% from the same period in 2019.  Births fell 11.4% in the same period.

It's not surprising to see the numbers of weddings diminish in times like these.  Hard to commit to a future that is over the horizon.  But Japan's response to COVID has, overall, resulted in less health, mortality and economic damage than in other industrialized countries.  Their recovery has been quicker.  This makes a reduction in weddings of over one-third a significant response.

Add to that the fact that, like most developed countries, Japan's birth rate has been declining (by 5.8% in 2019), and average age has been rising.  In Japan, the average age is 45.9 - the highest in the world. 

Policymakers are scrambling to address the crisis, covering fertility treatment with health insurance and doubling the upper limit of a one-off government allowance for newlyweds to 600,000 yen ($5,726).

So COVID has made a disturbing situation much worse in Japan.  And since confidence in the future will probably wait, not until economies and virus protection actually improve, but when we think they have improved (much later), it may take years for Japan's birth rate to return to pre-COVID levels - when it was declining.  

Japan is going to be different in the new world.  Government ministers are predicting disasters in a variety of systems, from social security to pediatrics.  Will a sudden dip in the birthrates of other developed nations - which are not far behind Japan in their steady decline - have similar impacts?  Demographic shifts can result in profound changes in society.  Japan's salaryman culture may be responsible for its "leadership" in this area, but the rest of us are not far behind.