The
Brookings Institute predicts that around 300,000 to 500,000 fewer babies
will be born next year. “Economics matters,” they note; births
decline as the result of a damaged economy, and the numbers were
arrived at after considering a variety of economic factors. They
also looked at the data from the (inaccurately named) Spainsh Flu of
1918. That pandemic, as we know, had three distinct spikes in the
death rate – and there were three distinct drops in the death rate
nine months after each. The total drop was about 12%; during the
more recent Great Recession, it was 9%. The Brookings numbers
suggest we'll see a 10% drop.
So
– no baby boom. CNN's Dr. Sanjay Gupta explains:
“Basically, the bottom line is this: when there's a storm warning, there's some data that suggests that the rate of pregnancies increase, but actually when destruction happens, like a tsunami, then actually your births go down,” Gupta said.
So there's a difference in what the impact on society is of any natural calamity or a pandemic – and the forecast suggests that this is much more serious than a tropical storm. It's a tsunami.”
A
tsunami, indeed. Many people feel they cannot afford to have
children in the best of times; when the bottom drops out... And with
the strong possibility of a second wave in six months, who wants to
be pregnant and
sick?
What
effect will the lower birth rate have? It will probably depend on
whether the drop will affect some groups more than others. Will it
be concentrated in some demographic, or distributed evenly?
America's birth rate is already declining, as are the rates in many
developed countries. The economic impact of these trends will be
substantial – especially their effect on economic growth.
Something
to look forward to.
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