Healthcare Ratcheting

More on ratcheting: healthcare. Or, more accurately, accessible/affordable healthcare.

Of course, millions of people suddenly unemployed means (at least in America) many millions of those are suddenly without affordable healthcare – in the middle of a global pandemic. Losing health insurance without a safety net is more likely in states which did not expand Medicaid, but there is more than enough pain to go around.

This is a fascinating opportunity to observe ratcheting first-hand. We had A, and suddenly, B. To what extent will we return to A? Will the ratchet slow the return to coverage as in A? Most of American business and commerce is shut down. Employees are laid off or furloughed. Many businesses will go under, and others will rise to fill the void. Whole segments of the economy will be re-built from scratch (especially, if the experts are right, if the virus won't be gone for a very long time).

Time for innovation! It's near impossible to eliminate healthcare coverage for an industry unilaterally, during normal times, but when you're building companies and economy segments up from nothing – anything is possible! And since labor unions represent only about 10% of American workers, the decision can actually be unilateral!

Those who know me are aware of how I feel about capitalism, so it shouldn't be a surprise that I feel sure that industry leaders are thinking about this very issue right now. How will it turn out?

Is it completely out of the question to suggest that, at the end of the worst pandemic in living history, we will emerge to find that Americans have greater access to affordable healthcare than before?

In the new world, will we be closer to A or B? Or can we hope for C?