Data (Sigh...)

As we have seen, there is disagreement regarding whether the pandemic is over, or whether it matters whether it is over or not (open at all costs!).  I thought that, since everyone seems to be weighing in on this, that you and I should be able to, as well.

So - here's a CDC site that will provide you with the actual data (if that's how you roll), and you can use it to conclude anything you want.  The site is a little buggy, but it provides granular detail regarding testing, positivity, cases, deaths, etc.  Now you can be an expert, as well!

Here's Barnstable County, MA (Cape Cod), where we own a rental house in Cape's most rural town.  We've been hiding out from COVID here in the pines for as much time as possible (click to embiggen):

Interestingly, here's the data for Otsego County, where we actually live:

Lots wrong with this one.  In August/September of 2020, the students returned to the two colleges in our small city (SUNY Oneonta and Hartwick College) and, since SUNY O didn't require student testing, there were over 700 cases within two weeks.  There's a little blip on the screen for that time, but not 700+.  Also, according to the NY Times COVID tracker, there have been 88 COVID deaths in Otsego County; according to the county Health Department, there have been 111 "COVID-related deaths."  None show up on the CDC tracker.

Anyway, in both cases, we're practically at zero.  It' over!  But wait - it's trending upward.  Oh no, a surge!

So - how do we know when the pandemic is over if we can't rely on anyone's data, or what it means?  Frustrating, to say the least.  The answer, I suppose, is to use the data you like the best, depending on what you want it to mean.  That's what everyone else is doing!

Blacks and Long COVID

It seems that in some states,  COVID   is   over, even though it  clearly  is   not.  The new world has yet to appear, although we're beginning to see some outlines.  Here's one piece of the puzzle:

It has long been clear that Black Americans have experienced high rates of coronavirus infection, hospitalization and death throughout the pandemic.

But those factors are now leading experts to sound the alarm about what will most likely be the next crisis: a prevalence of long COVID-19 in the Black community and a lack of access to treatment.

Note that this statement has two parts:  Blacks have a disproportionately higher rate of infection, and therefore long COVID, and Blacks have disproportionately fewer options and resources when it comes to necessary healthcare.  Just the way we set it up; no surprise here.  When we "go back to normal," that's what it will look like.

It's worth the time to read the whole article, for a little clearer view of what the new world will look like.  It'll look like this:

“We expect there are going to be greater barriers to access the resources and services available for long COVID,” said one of the authors, Dr. Marcella Nunez-Smith, director of Yale University’s health equity office and former chair of President Joe Biden’s health equity task force.

“The pandemic isn’t over, it isn’t over for anyone,” Nunez-Smith said. “But the reality is, it’s certainly not over in Black America.”

Are We There Yet?

 

No, we are not.

One Way to End the Pandemic

 Just change how you measure stuff.

Not Over

And So We Wait

Of course, as soon as I wrapped up the previous post, I came upon more interesting stuff about the medical conditions that persist after recovering from COVID-19.

I'm focusing on this article because it describes, first of all, a really good reason not to get it, and secondly, it is a little scary and sound like a big deal.  And, thirdly, it makes it clear that, as I noted in that previous post, we need more time to really know for sure.

It's not a surprise that people who recover from COVID have been shown to suffer from blood clots and strokes at a greater rate than those who never had COVID.  It is the great prevalence of those conditions that is new and disturbing.  In an op-ed piece for CNN, Dr. Kent Sepkowitz, a physician and infection disease expert at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center in New York, notes 

The results are clear and very significant: Compared with similar people who had not been infected with SARS-CoV-2, those who recovered from infection had many more blood clots, heart problems and strokes. The extent of the differences across the 20 different cardiovascular conditions is among the greatest of any clinical study I have read. It is jaw-dropping.*

So there's that.  Whether this is included in the concept "long COVID," or in the wider category the CDC calls "Post COVID Conditions," it is, apparently, real, and frightening.  

But is is permanent?  How long will it persist? What else don't we know about the parameters of these findings?

The study has important limitations. It involves people infected in 2020 who are at least a year post-infection; these people likely had the initial "wild" strain of SARS-CoV-2 or perhaps the Alpha variant, which dominated in late 2020. Not enough time has passed to know if similar long-term dysfunctions of the blood vessels and heart also will occur among survivors of Delta or Omicron variant infections. And the study cannot predict the health impact of Covid-19 two and three and 10 years after recovery.

"Not enough time has passed."  And so we wait. 

 * - A more detailed look at the study results can be found here and here.

Too Short a Time for Long COVID

I want to write a post - or posts - about long COVID, because it will surely be a significant factor in the new world, a legacy of the pandemic that helps define "the new normal."  But we just don't know enough about it at this point.  It's been two years since WHO* declared the pandemic, and although research is being done with patients who contracted COVID early, and then showed symptoms of long COVID, no one has had it for long enough for us to learn much.  We can describe broad categories of symptoms** that characterize long COVID, but that's about it.

So no long COVID post yet - it could, actually, take years before we think we know enough.  But there are two related topics worth mentioning at this point:

• "Post-COVID Conditions" - the CDC has a whole page devoted to this topic.  Interestingly, it does not use the term "long COVID" but describes a wide variety of symptoms and conditions (and evidence of damage) that seems to include what we know about long COVID but goes well beyond it.  Included are MIS and post-intensive care syndrome (PICS), as well as exacerbation of pre-existing conditions, organ damage and auto-immune issues.  Obviously, more needs to be done before we can sort out what is going to be happening to who, when, and as a result of what level of illness.***
• It seems that insurance companies and worker's comp are not up to speed here; many of those suffering from long COVID are suffering even more because their claims for reimbursement for medical expenses, and/or workers' comp benefits, are being denied.  Interestingly, the impacts of long COVID do not seem to fit neatly into the categories and descriptions used to qualify claims.  Interesting article and worth a read.

I can promise you that this blog will not still be going strong five years from now, but that may be what it takes to get a sense of how all this will affect the new world.

 * - WHO.  Not "the WHO," unless it's Peter Townsend and Roger Daltry and it's 1969.

 ** - From the study's findings:  "breathing difficulties/breathlessness, fatigue/malaise, chest/throat pain, headache, abdominal symptoms, myalgia, other pain, cognitive symptoms, and anxiety/depression."

 *** - UPDATE:  I found the CDC's definition of "Post COVID Conditions: 

The term “Post-COVID Conditions” is an umbrella term for the wide range of physical and mental health consequences experienced by some patients that are present four or more weeks after SARS-CoV-2 infection, including by patients who had initial mild or asymptomatic acute infection.

This kind of vague categorization is what has to change as the years go by.