Remember a million years ago when we were comparing the pandemic to Columbus's voyage to the new world? When we were complaining because it wasn't over after two months, even though Columbus took half that time to get across the Atlantic?
Remember looking for signs of land: birds, branches in the water, a change in the sea? And then realizing that we had so much longer to go?
Well, a hypothetical stick just floated by, and there goes a hypothetical bird:
Barely 2 months after it began, the Omicron wave is already ebbing in some countries. And although it has sickened huge numbers of people, caused massive disruption, and left many health care workers exhausted, it is also leaving something unusual in its wake: a sense of optimism about the pandemic’s trajectory. In countries where many people have been vaccinated or were infected, scientists say, the worst may finally be over.
“We anticipate that there will be a period of quiet before COVID-19 may come back towards the end of the year, but not necessarily the pandemic coming back,” Hans Kluge, director of the European Region of the World Health Organization (WHO), recently said in an interview...
The optimism is shared—although couched in caveats—even by some scientists and public health experts who have stressed the risks of the pandemic from the start and implored politicians to take stricter action. “We have reached a bit of a turning point,” says Devi Sridhar, a global health expert at the University of Edinburgh... Not only has the Omicron wave crested in several countries, but its toll has been smaller than feared. And the wave of infections has likely boosted immunity at the population level, which means future waves may wreak even less havoc.
Still, researchers urge caution.
Yeah, I'll bet they do.
The bird and the stick are hypothetical because they are signs of land only if the folks that are doing the predicting are accurate. It's just a guess, but an informed guess. Nevertheless, this kind of thing is new and refreshing.
Speaking of caution, Thailand has approved the protocols for declaring COVID-19 endemic, which would, at least for them, end the pandemic and usher in the new (Thai) world. They set out three criteria*, and asserted that they already meet all three criteria - but they're going to wait six months to a year before declaring the pandemic endemic. Caution, indeed. This kind of range sounds kind of made up, suggesting that Thailand is not engaged in an ordered sequence that will end on a particular day, but is just testing the winds, like Spain did not too long ago.
So, keep a lookout. Don't believe everything you see. And if you live in the US, good luck. Our vaccination rate isn't anywhere near what it takes to move into endemicity. 80% vaccination rate? Ha! Set the sails, get another hot meal, settle in, check the maps and charts. Lots of patience.
* - fewer than 10,000 new cases per day; the fatality rate is no higher than 0.1% of those who are admitted to the hospital with an infection; and more than 80% of at-risk people have had at least two vaccinations.
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