Lazy Optimism

Aris Katzourakis, writing in Nature, reminds us that the new world will not see COVID-19 fade away.  There will be no return to normal.  To an epidemiologist, "an endemic infection is one in which overall rates are static — not rising, not falling."  For instance, malaria and tuberculosis.  In 2020, when all eyes were fixed on the pandemic, these endemic diseases killed 600,000 and 1.1 million people, respectively.  The "normal" flu, of course, kills around 35,000 a year, just in the US.

So the new world will include a significant number of deaths from COVID-19, year after year.  How many?  Interestingly, it will depend a lot on how we manage it:

First, we must set aside lazy optimism. Second, we must be realistic about the likely levels of death, disability and sickness. Targets set for reduction should consider that circulating virus risks giving rise to new variants. Third, we must use — globally — the formidable weapons available: effective vaccines, antiviral medications, diagnostic tests and a better understanding of how to stop an airborne virus through mask wearing, distancing, and air ventilation and filtration. Fourth, we must invest in vaccines that protect against a broader range of variants.

So we must set aside "lazy optimism."  Will we?  How are you betting?