The "End" of the Pandemic

We seem to be trudging on and on and on.  We do not know how to find our way to the post-COVID trailhead.  We are without direction and without a guide.  We have given up, it seems, the game of speculating about the post-COVID world.  The new world.  There is nothing to write about, it seems, and no one is writing.

But we do know two things about the post-COVID world.  Two dimensions, out of many - or maybe only these two, plus the old world, will make up the new.

First, we know that the new world will contain COVID-19, because we have made so many stupid mistakes over such a long time that the virus will become endemic and it will be with us always, killing and damaging us to an extent that will still not be extreme enough to teach us some useful lessons.  One more deadly disease - but this one, for the first time, perhaps ever, has divided us in a way that may make it impossible for us to bring what we know about public health to bear.  Good luck with that, new world.

Secondly, the new world will contain long COVID.  A certain proportion of those who have contracted the virus - even those who showed no symptoms - will suffer a wide variety of physical and neurological conditions that do not sound like a lot of fun.  We're still learning about long-COVID, but the CDC is in no doubt that it is real.  Here's their list of known effects: 

• Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
• Tiredness or fatigue
• Symptoms that get worse after physical or mental activities (also known as post-exertional malaise)
• Difficulty thinking or concentrating (sometimes referred to as “brain fog”)
• Cough
• Chest or stomach pain
• Headache
• Fast-beating or pounding heart (also known as heart palpitations)
• Joint or muscle pain
• Pins-and-needles feeling
• Diarrhea
• Sleep problems
• Fever
• Dizziness on standing (lightheadedness)
• Rash
• Mood changes
• Change in smell or taste
• Changes in menstrual period cycles

No one gets all of them, but no one gets just one or two, it seems.  And there are those who begin to experience organ damage due to an inappropriate auto-immune response - the autoimmune system begins to attack healthy cells in healthy organs, causing inflammation or tissue damage; affected are "heart, lung, kidney, skin, and brain functions."

And that's not to mention - if your COVID journey has led you to the ICU - the PTSD.

I feel like I've done this math before, but here goes.  Long COVID affects between one third and one half of all COVID patients, both symptomatic and asyptomatic.  So - let's say 40%.  If you don't like that number, you can do your own math.

As of this writing, according to Worldometer, 245,567,943 people worldwide have had COVID-19.  Forty percent of that is just under a hundred million.  In the US, those numbers are 46,502,517 and about eighteen and a half million.  Only four states have a population of more than eighteen and a half million.

So the fifth largest state in the US will be completely populated by people who will probably qualify as disabled and will have trouble getting and keeping a job, because of neurological and physical issues resulting from their - possibly asymptomatic - cases of COVID-19.

The only good news is that we don't know how long a case of long COVID lasts.  It hasn't been long enough to do the necessary research.  If everyone gets over it in a year, I guess that's a consolation.

So: the new world.  Endemic COVID and long COVID.  Long-term victims of a virus that will continue to produce long-term victims.  No wonder no one wants to write about the "end" of the pandemic.