Good News/Bad News

The good news is that there's good news.  The bad news is that I don't believe it.  Or, more accurately, I don't believe that it will last.

Two articles I've read recently have great news about the new world.  One focuses on the economy.  It features the most naively hyperbolic headline I've seen in a long time:  "America Fought the Pandemic Economy - And Won."  No exclamation point, so that's a blessing.  And it's in Axios, so - a pinch of salt.

We're told that there have been great gains made in employment, wages and household wealth.  "Stimulus checks lifted nearly 12 million Americans out of poverty, according to new census data this week. Government programs also saved millions of people from losing their health insurance, even as millions lost their jobs." 

All great stuff.  But this was predictable and predicted.  A quick and unsurprising recovery from a very unusual recession (I always wondered if we should have another name for it) brought about by a return to consuming and an array of Federal and state stimuli and other financial assistance achieved their goal:  to get through the pandemic without completely wrecking the economy.

Axios' assumption (in the construction of the headline) that the pandemic is over notwithstanding, this is an incomplete picture, at least as regards the definition of the new world.  There is no evidence that any of these economic markers will continue in the positive direction they've taken so far.  Every one of them is artificially supported, and as soon as the stimulus checks stop coming, the rent moratoria all expire, as well as the temporary healthcare supports, and the labor market settles down (thus allowing corporations to once again easily fill positions paying less than a living wage), it'll look a lot like 2019.  So - let's wait a year or two to see where we actually are.

The second piece lets us know that "a new UCLA-led study decisively confirms findings of research published earlier this year, which found that American values, attitudes and activities had changed dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic."  Those changes have apparently affected a wide variety of our social functioning:

For example, according to the survey, people said that compared with pre-pandemic times, they are now more likely to be growing and preparing their own food, conserving resources, demonstrating less interest in financial wealth and showing greater appreciation for their elders. The researchers found all of those shifts are a function of Americans' increased focus on survival and their isolation during the pandemic.*

The study also found that during the pandemic parents expected their children to help out around the home—for example, by cooking for the family—more than they did before the pandemic.

Wow.  Without knowing it, out of nowhere, we're becoming good people!  Who knew?  Time to check the research methodology.

The earlier research (Februrary of 2021) relied on "Google searches and phrases posted on Twitter, blogs and internet forums." Dr. Greenfield's current research "is based on a survey of 2,092 Americans—about half in California and half in Rhode Island."

Ah.  Social media and a survey. No direct observation of behavior, or analysis of outcomes or nationwide trends.  Research done without having to leave your office.  

To be fair, the authors note that these characteristics will "shift back to pre-2020 norms once the pandemic is more fully under control. But they note that might not be true for people in their 20s and younger, whose values are likely to be more permanently shaped by the events of the past two years."  So maybe there's some hope after all.

 Unfortunately, neither of these findings are likely to tell us much about the new world, as great as they sound.  We've still got a long way to go.

 * - The author, Dr. Patricia Greenfield of UCLA, senior author of both studies, compares these qualities to "those found in small, isolated villages with low life expectancy—such as an isolated Mayan village in Chiapas, Mexico, that she has studied since 1969."  The common factor?  The aforementioned "increased focus on survival," and isolation.