More Patience

 

Just how long do you expect this plague to go on?

                                                                                                   The New Yorker, August 30

As we know, the plague referenced in the cartoon is still with us - it "went on" indefinitely.  There have been three major outbreaks - pandemics - including one on the 20th century.  

Abbey and I were startled, to say the least, last Sunday when the pastor announced, "COVID is over!"  Turns out he was celebrating the possibility of a women's conference in November, which will, if all goes well, be held under pre-COVID rules.  As for us, however, we still had our masks on.

As you know, I find it hard to resist the temptation to read any article with a title like "When Will the COVID-19 Pandemic End?"  This time, it was by McKinsey & Co., a wide-spectrum management consulting firm, and their take on the end of the pandemic - the arrival of the new world! - is extensive and comprehensive.

We've talked and read a lot about the endemic future of COVID, as a general concept, but what will it look like?  Well, it may look like "shifting the focus of public-health efforts from managing case counts to managing severe illnesses and deaths."  Singapore is heading down that road now.  

It will also include conversations about what level of risk we are willing to live with indefinitely.  To assist us in this conversation, we are presented with data regarding the "normal flu" that we've lived with all our lives; as we noted last time, it is not a benign disease.  In fact, the the US, there was a period of time this spring when COVID deaths and hospitalizations were occurring at a lower level than the ten-year average for deaths and hospitalizations for flu.  Here's some data for those who need it (you know who you are):

The graphs of flu hospitalizations and deaths are straight lines because they are a ten-year average, not discrete data points.

So we see that, if we can get the pandemic back to a point similar to where most places in the US were this spring, we may have an endemic equilibrium that we can live with.  Especially given that those of us who are vaccinated have a significantly lower chance of serious illness from COVID than we do from regular flu.  One way to look at it:  from the perspective of a vaccinated person, once the really scary waves in the unvaccinated states burn out, life should be able to go back to normal, although we probably won't be able to put our masks in mothballs.  For those who choose to remain unvaccinated - well, who knows.

McKinsey & Co. suggests that, given this perspective, the shift from pandemic to endemic management may take place as soon as the fourth quarter of 2021, and be complete in the first quarter of 2022, at least in many developed Western countries.  

So - the new world isn't in sight, but there seem to be rumors - actually, pretty credible stories - that we're heading in sort of the right direction.  Patience - and get the vax and wear your mask.