More WFH and Traffic

More about the effect of pandemic-based WFH on traffic patterns, and speculation regarding whether the changes are permanent.

Wejo is an outfit that is "reimagining the world we live in with connected vehicle data."  The fact that "connected vehicle data" sounds like something I'd really like to know a lot more about tells you all you need to know about me.

USA Today summarizes* some of Wejo's recent reporting on rush hour:

While Americans are gradually getting back to some semblance of normal, traffic data suggests that the morning drive has changed drastically – and it may never go back to pre-COVID-19 patterns.

In short, rush-hour traffic is more spread out and, generally, has shifted later in the morning as Americans are more able to avoid heavy traffic periods due to remote work...

To be sure, as the pandemic continues to subside, many Americans are expected to return to the office after Labor Day, likely increasing overall traffic volumes. But traffic experts expect that increasingly flexible work arrangements are likely to give many Americans the ability to avoid the old-fashioned blitz to the workplace altogether.

“The morning rush hour has gotten later and it’s gotten flatter,” says Daniel Tibble, director of data science and analytics for Wejo. “In almost all scenarios, traffic is not dropping as much in the later hours and is dropping more in the earlier hours.”

So rush hour seems to be changing, and for the good:  "flatter" means spread out, reducing congestion.

Whether this is permanent depends on the Great WFH Debate:  will there be a significant increase in people working from home after the pandemic is over (whatever "over" means)?  There will be impacts well beyond traffic:  commercial real estate and associated restaurants and other businesses; car and especially gas sales; family dynamics; population density (what happens when suddenly a whole lot of people can live wherever they want?), and etcetera.

Labor Day seems to be the point on the calendar when many businesses will be expecting their WFH staff to be coming back, so we've got a couple of months to see what happens.  Should be interesting.

 

 * - Poorly.

It's Not Over

We share our time between homes in rural New York and rural Massachusetts.  When we congregate, it is always with people who are vaccinated.  So for us, it would be very easy to slip into a post-pandemic lifestyle, to assume our place in a new world that is very much like the old one.

We also read the news, and it is often jarring, here in our healthy havens.

• There were "record numbers of infections in Australia and South Korea" this week.  Record numbers.
• Each day for the last three days, Thailand broke the record for COVID deaths.
• Indonesia has reported record numbers of cases on seven of the last eleven days.  On Thursday, a record number of Indonesians died.  A year ago, Business Wire noted that only 5% of Indonesian hospital beds are equipped to provide intensive care services.
• Vast numbers of Australians who were caught overseas when the pandemic struck are still not home, and may not get home for a long time:  Australia is tightening its lockdown, and fewer people - any people - will be allowed in the country going forward.  Believe it or not, only 8% of Australians are vaccinated.
• Each of the last four days, The Moscow Times reported a new daily record for Russians dying from COVID.
• The Euro 2020 soccer championships look like they will be super spreader events.  40% of Finland's cases are apparently traceable to soccer fans returning from games in Russia.
• And here in America, 273 people died of COVID yesterday.  Yesterday.  On that same day, 14,875 Americans learned that they had COVID.  Twenty percent of them had the delta variant.  In the UK, 39,438 Britons learned they had COVID, and nearly all of them - 92.3% - have the delta variant.
• Also in America:  You've heard of the variants, and especially the delta variant, and you've heard of anti-vaxxers.  Those two things tend more and more to be found together:  hotspots.  The Federal Government is sending mobile vaccination labs to those hotspots, because the pandemic isn't over.

The pandemic isn't over.  That land we thought we saw, or saw evidence of?  It was mangled by marauders and wiped clean by hurricanes and no longer exists.  Just branches and leaves in the water.  The birds seem confused.  We're caught in a storm, and the compass was swept overboard.

It's not over.  The new world is nowhere to be seen.

Colds in The New World

I got a COVID test this morning, because - the new world.

I have, throughout my long life, gotten a cold maybe once every year or two.  Nothing unusual:  it comes; you deal with it; it goes.  Never thought of missing work or sending out notifications.

I've had a persistent cough for a month or so which feels exactly like an old fashioned cold.  In the last few days, the cough has gotten more persistent.  Nothing new.  Except how I felt I had to handle it.

First, I called the doctor's office, because, for the first time ever, I wanted to know what it was.  Still waiting to hear, so no joy there.

I have one remaining post-post-retirement job, which involves working with a small group of colleagues at a historic mansion north of Cooperstown and leading tours of the mansion.  I certainly didn't want to spend the day coughing all over everyone, and watching folks edge away from me all day, even if I did exercise good cough discipline ("Cough into your elbow!" says my wife who worked with preschoolers for fifteen years).

So this morning I got a COVID test.  Because I have a cold.  The test came back negative.  I e-mailed everyone who works with me and outlined the plan, which is:  I'll go to work tomorrow and wear a mask all day.  At the beginning of each tour, I'll let the guests know that I have a cold and, by the way, tested negative yesterday.  I have the proof, printed out, in my pocket, if anyone would like to see it.  Then we'll start the tour.

If COVID really does become endemic (thanks, anti-vaxxers!), this may be the way we handle colds in the new world.