More Math

In a podcast aimed at medical clinicians, Dr.Amesh Adalja of Johns Hopkins, tells us that the COVID data modeling for the next year includes a surge in the winter, with a death rate in January of about half of what we saw this year.

January, 2021, was the most deadly month in the US at that point, with nearly 80,000 deaths.  So the prediction for next January is that around 40,000 Americans will die.

This alarming prediction encouraged me to do some more math.  If we take the total number of Americans who have died from COVID (604,000) and divide by 16, which is the number of months since the first of those deaths (early February, 2020), we get an monthly average for American COVID deaths:  37,687.  

So Dr. Adalja is suggesting - and he did so as if this were no big deal - that next January's death toll from COVID will far surpass the average monthly American death toll throughout the pandemic.

So this is what "endemic" means?  Looking less and less like the new world.