As we have discussed ad nausem, the arrival of the new world will depend on herd immunity. We also know that there is no herd immunity in a civilized society (one that is not willing to sacrifice millions of its members) without vaccination. And the number representing the proportion of the population who needs to be immune ranges between 70% and 95%. WHO cautions that we don't really know yet.
But it's clearly going to be more than 50%, and that's a problem right now, because as of a few weeks ago, about half the participants in this Kaiser Family Foundation survey reported that they would "wait and see how it's working," "definitely not get it," or "get it only if required." Skepticism and refusal has been diminishing as the vaccine program has progressed, but these positions still represent about half the American population.
That has to change a lot before we can set our sights on herd immunity. Perhaps the experience of being a vaccine refuser in Israel might provide a cautionary note. Israel has jumped out ahead of the rest of the world with its vaccination program; half of Israelis (but not Palestinians) have had at least the first shot. The unvaccinated, according to Health Minister Yuli Edelstein, "will be left behind," banned from a wide variety of activities, including theaters, gyms, resorts, and, without very recent positive test results, work.
This is, as they say, a developing story. Rules for vaccine refusers in Israel are not legislated by the Knesset, but imposed by employers, business owners, courts and other authorities. Whether the national government - of any country - chooses to wade into this minefield in the battle between public health and the rights of individuals, is yet to be seen.
But none of this changes the cold bio-mathematical facts of herd immunity, which requires many of those who are hesitant or unwilling right now, to be vaccinated.
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